GUIDE · APO-05

Solar storm preparedness

A Carrington-class geomagnetic storm is a rare, real, mapped event. This guide summarizes what is known, what breaks first, and what an ordinary household can do before and during.

Coronal mass ejection leaving the solar limb, recorded in extreme ultraviolet.
Coronal mass ejection, 31 August 2012 · NASA/SDO, Goddard Space Flight Center · public domain

What a solar storm is

A coronal mass ejection (CME) hurls magnetized plasma from the Sun. If it strikes Earth, induced currents circulate through long conductors — transmission lines, pipelines, signal cables — and can saturate high-voltage transformers. Useful warning between L1 detection (ACE/DSCOVR satellites) and arrival is typically 15 to 60 minutes.

Calibrated precedents

  • 1859 — Carrington Event. Aurorae seen in the Caribbean; telegraphs caught fire, some operated without batteries.
  • 774–775 CE — Miyake event. Tree-ring carbon-14 spike consistent with a solar event larger than Carrington.
  • 1989 — Quebec. Province-wide 9-hour blackout from geomagnetically induced current.
  • July 2012 — A Carrington-scale CME crossed Earth's orbit; the planet had passed that point ~9 days earlier.

What breaks first

  • High-voltage transformers (345 kV+). Replacement: 6 to 24 months; limited global spare stock.
  • Low-orbit satellites and GPS. Signal degradation, increased atmospheric drag, loss of fine positioning.
  • HF radio and polar comms. Blackout within minutes, recovery within hours.
  • Distribution grids at high latitudes before equatorial ones.

What a household can do beforehand

  • Two reference scenarios: 72 hours without grid and 2 weeks without grid. Prepare for the second, live for the first.
  • Water: 4 liters per person per day. Mechanical filter + purification tablets as redundancy.
  • Lighting: hand-crank or solar torch; candles only as a third option.
  • AM/FM radio, battery or hand-crank, for the official bulletin. HF only if you already operate it.
  • Documents and small-denomination cash; ATMs and card readers stop with the grid.
  • Cooking fuel (gas, alcohol) for 14 days of simple preparation.
  • Chronic medication with 30 days of buffer; insulin cooled in a thermal bag with reusable ice.

During the warning window (15 to 60 minutes)

  • Unplug sensitive electronics: computers, router, TV, residential solar inverters.
  • Do not open freezer or fridge without need; a closed freezer holds food 24 to 48 hours.
  • Fill water containers while pressure lasts.
  • Top up batteries, phone, torches.
  • If you operate essential vehicles (ambulance, rescue), park where it does not depend on electric fuel pumps.

What this guide is not

This is not a long-term survival plan, nor a public infrastructure proposal. Structural mitigation — DC blockers on transformers, substation hardening, strategic spares — is the responsibility of utilities and regulators. This guide covers 14 days, not fourteen years.

Technical sources

  • NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center — G1 to G5 scale and operational bulletins.
  • NASA / ESA — CME and solar wind modeling.
  • Miyake et al. (2012) — Nature. Carbon-14 spike in 774–775 CE.
  • Baker et al. (2013) — Space Weather. Analysis of the July 2012 CME.
  • Hydro-Québec — report on the March 13, 1989 blackout.
Richard Carrington's drawing of the sunspot group observed on 1 September 1859.
Drawing of the sunspots of 1 September 1859, by Richard Carrington · Royal Astronomical Society · public domain

The name and the method

About the name

APOCALYPSIS

from Greek ἀποκάλυψις — from apó, "away", + kalýptein, "to cover"

The word literally means revelation, unveiling: taking off what covers. It did not mean end of the world. That sense came later, borrowed from the last book of the New Testament, called Apocalypse because it narrates a revelation — and only by consequence describes a catastrophe.

The same root kalýptein is in Calypso, the nymph who hid Odysseus for seven years, and in eucalyptus, whose flower comes covered by a cap.

We keep the original sense. This archive does not announce the end. It lifts the veil off the numbers.

Methodology note · AI transparency

This dossier was produced through a hybrid research and writing process. Editorial direction, source selection, structural decisions, content curation and factual review were carried out by Tarcísio Rupel. Artificial intelligence tools — Claude (Anthropic), ChatGPT (OpenAI) and Lovable — were used as assistants for drafting, summarising primary sources, formatting and layout. All factual claims were verified against the primary sources listed throughout the text. No data, quotation or reference was accepted without verification in a peer-reviewed publication, official document or primary archive.